The public is overwhelmingly backing Carol Ann Duffy to be the next poet laureate, according to bookmaker William Hill, which has given Duffy even odds to take the post this summer when current incumbent Andrew Motion steps down.
Duffy was considered favourite to win the post in 1999, after the death of Ted Hughes. However, her status then as a single mother in a lesbian relationship made her wary of taking up such a prominent national position. Peristent rumours have also suggested that Tony Blair, then prime minister, had vetoed Duffy because he was concerned that her domestic arrangements would be inappropriate for such a public figure. This time round, the Observer reported in May 2008, her stock is high at the Department for Culture, Media and Sport, and she herself is thought to be readier to accept.
"By far the best backed is the favourite Carol – 94% of the total bet is on her," William Hill spokesperson Rupert Adams said this morning, revealing that the biggest loser in the betting so far has been Wendy Cope. "Cope started as the 3/1 second favourite and is now out to 8/1, more than double the price she started at," said Adams. Given that Cope explicity ruled herself out of the running in January, it could be argued that these are rather ungenerous odds.
Better odds on Duffy can be found at Ladbrokes, which has her on as 6/5 favourite. "Despite courting controversy in the past, Carol Ann Duffy's accessible work is highly regarded. She's the justifiable favourite for the prestigious post," said spokesman Nick Weinberg.
Ladbrokes follows Duffy with Simon Armitage and Roger McGough, both at 3/1, Geoffrey Hill and James Fenton at 5/1, Ruth Padel at 8/1 and Jackie Kay at 10/1. Duffy and Armitage were both considered alongside Motion for the role when it was last up for grabs 10 years ago.
Of the top 12 names in the running for the laureateship, according to William Hill, seven are women; the election of a female laureate would be the first time in the position's 400-year history that a woman has filled the post.
The Department for Culture, Media and Sport is currently in the midst of a consultation period with the poetry establishment to come up with a shortlist of potential poets for the role, which will then be passed on to the prime minister's office, with the Queen to approve the final choice. Whether or not she'll be listening to the betting firms remains to be seen.
William Hill odds:
Evens Favourite: Carol Ann Duffy
5/2 Simon Armitage
3/1 Roger McGough
6/1 James Fenton
8/1 Wendy Cope
10/1 Jackie Kay
10/1 Benjamin Zephaniah
16/1 Lavinia Greenlaw
20/1 UA Fanthorpe
20/1 Jo Shapcott
25/1 Alice Oswald
33/1 William Radice
Ladbrokes odds:
6/5 Favourite: Carol Ann Duffy
3/1 Simon Armitage
3/1 Roger McGough
5/1 Geoffrey Hill
5/1 James Fenton
8/1 Ruth Padel
10/1 Jackie Kay
12/1 Wendy Cope
12/1 Fleur Adcock
16/1 Benjamin Zephaniah
20/1 Lavinia Greenlaw
