Waterstone's is about to take over Ottakar's in a deal that is bound to see the closure of a number of "doubled-up" stores in market towns throughout Britain.

With Blackwell's teetering, there could soon be a virtual duopoly (between Waterstone's and Borders), with WH Smith continuing to stock a narrowing range of titles. What does this all mean, and will the consumer benefit?

Despite the fact that the deal puts Waterstone's in a highly dominant market position, the competition authorities have waved it through, and there are now six main players in the bookselling market: Waterstone's, WH Smith, Borders/Books Etc, Amazon, the supermarkets and independent booksellers.

The common thread that runs through the first five is the huge level of discount they demand from suppliers, which is then passed on to the consumer. So all's well, then. Well, not quite. The only way publishers can give this discount is to concentrate their efforts on bestsellers and put all their marketing resources behind comparatively few books.

The publishing sector has reflected its bookselling counterpart and seen many smaller publishing houses gobbled up by the bigger ones, as they struggle to compete. In turn, this has meant fewer books being publishing and a contraction in range. So although the consumer wins on cover price, they lose out on choice. Some independent booksellers don't even bother to sell Harry Potter books because Tesco is selling them more cheaply than the bookseller can buy it from the publisher.

It's not uncommon to see small independent booksellers down at Asda piling their supermarket trollies high, looking slightly sheepish as they do so. This is because the publisher gives Asda a 60-65% discount, while the small bookseller will get 40% if he is lucky. And on top of that, Asda is likely to sell the book as a loss leader.

Amazon offers a standard 30-40% discount on most non-academic titles, so it has been able to establish a dominant market position in online bookselling. It has been so successful that 80% of people who buy anything online, buy from Amazon at some point.

So there's the background; now for the prediction: I foresee that within 10 years, apart from a very few run by retired individuals with money to throw down the drain, the independent bookshop will have disappeared from our town centres.

Even second-hand bookshops are disappearing at a fair old rate, as most people now buy their used books through Abebooks. There's still nothing like rooting round a second-hand bookshop and finding that book you've been looking for for years - but the internet has made the process so much easier.

The joy of wandering around Waterstone's used to be that each one was different: the local manager was able to decide on buying. Now, though, the centre decides everything and the local managers have little power to go their own way; each store looks the same and stocks the same books.

And as we have read in the weekend press, to get a book displayed in a prominent position throughout the chain can cost a publisher upwards of £20,000. So the bestseller charts are entirely skewed by money changing hands between publisher and bookseller. WH Smith does the same.

It is rare indeed for a book to break through that market barrier on its own merits. It can happen - Eats Shoots and Leaves by Lynn Truss is the exception that proves the rule. Profile Books, Truss's publisher, would never have been able to fund the marketing campaign a bestseller would normally require. But as I say, it's a great rarity for this to happen.

So will the consumer win in the long run? If you're a buyer of trade fiction, sports books or general literature, then probably. Prices will remain low and the contraction in range won't affect you. But if you're into more esoteric, specialist books, expect to find your choice diminished and the price to rise. And if you're someone who just likes to browse, you're likely to find your browsing range restricted to a choice of Waterstone's, Borders or WH Smith: a truly terrifying thought.