Nan Graham, who now works at US publisher Scribner (a subsidiary of the mighty Simon & Schuster), is a very good and experienced editor, and a sensible person. In the UK she looks after Hanif Kureishi and Monica Ali, and has a reputation for good taste and the feisty support of her writers.

So if Nan has just paid $5m for Audrey Niffenegger's second novel after the astonishing success of The Time Traveler's Wife, I'd be willing to bet it will be a finely calculated gamble, and one based on a careful consideration of the manuscript.

Graham's reported comments to the New York Times about Her Fearful Symmetry (a title derived from William Blake to describe a novel set in Highgate cemetery with Marx's grave as a backdrop) suggest that Niffenegger's new book is seriously commercial. "She really has defied custom," says Graham, "and written a spectacular second novel." This, she went on, cheerfully boosting her new acquisition, "is one of the hardest things to do in the universe." Well, up to a point, Lord Copper.

Whatever the qualities of Her Fearful Symmetry – we'll have to wait and see about that – this deal is a classic example of the recession advance. That's to say, a huge payout for a brand-name writer who can be expected to work the necessary magic for Scribner at the checkout and generate turnover in a sure-fire way that would not be possible with, say, 20 or 30 less high-profile novels, the so-called "mid-list titles" (the real losers in this recession).

For better or worse, this kind of money for these brand-name titles is going to become common practice in the US-UK book world during the recession: stand by for a rash of "giant advance" headlines.

In some ways, though, the Niffenegger news is misleading. In fact, it's not even that humongous an advance: I can think of about 10 well-known writers – rather more discreet than Niffenegger and her agent – whose recent contracts are adjacent to $5m.

But Niffenegger is nevertheless an interesting case: devoted fans, spectacular US sales, a low-key personal style and a quasi-literary approach to some very commercial fiction, all of which plays well in the marketplace. The Marx/Highgate element might just be a stroke of inspiration. My guess is that Scribner may have just got itself a bargain.