The Nobel Prize winning poet Seamus Heaney emerged as an unlikely front-runner to be the next Poet Laureate yesterday.

Heaney, who was born in Northern Ireland but took Irish citizenship, is joined on a shortlist of four by Tony Harrison, Carol Anne Duffy and Andrew Motion.

The choice of Heaney is a big surprise. Although acknowledged as the leading poet of his time, it had been thought his political feelings would rule him out. However, a source close to the deliberations indicated that it was felt that although Heaney was a nationalist, the post should be offered to the best poet.

In a time of political flux in Ireland, said the source, it was hoped that Heaney would be able to articulate the evolving relationship between the Republic and Britain.

"There was a feeling that we won't know that he does not want it unless he is offered the job," said a person close to the discussions.

The shortlist was drawn up at a meeting at the end of last week and confirmed yesterday. The meeting was attended by members of some of the bodies involved in the consultations over the new Poet Laureate following the death of Ted Hughes in October last year.

Although the appointment is formally made by the Queen, it is on the recommendation of the Prime Minister. He takes soundings from literary bodies, some of whom had drawn up their own shortlists. The organisations represented at yesterday's meeting were the British Council, the Poetry Library based at the South Bank Centre, the Arts Council of England, and the Poetry Society.

The meeting agreed that the post should be reformed to be a 10-year fixed term appointment with a salary of £20,000 and possibly some secretarial help. Previously, the post was for life with an annual salary of £70 and a case of wine.

The reforms are intended to make the position attractive to younger poets, who will not be deterred by the prospect of a lifetime composing eulogies to royalty. Sources indicated the post would also become more than simply a celebration of royalty. The next Poet Laureate will be an "ambassador for literature", tapping the national mood through poetry. Nevertheless the Laureate's first task will fit comfortably with old notions of the position: the poet has to be in place for the wedding between Prince Edward and Sophie Rhys-Jones, expected to take place in the early summer.

Although Heaney is the front-runner, most observers of the poetry scene predict he will turn down the offer.

Of the other candidates, it is thought that Tony Harrison, who was widely tipped for the post when Ted Hughes was appointed, is unlikely to receive Downing Street approval. The 62-year-old is best known for his work with the Royal National Theatre and for his recent long poem V. Andrew Motion, who is also a biographer, is considered to be an able ambassador but may not have the same sparkle to his writing as some of the other candidates.

Which leaves Carol Anne Duffy. The Glaswegian is best known for two anthologies, Mean Time and The Other Country. She has also won the Somerset Maugham and Dylan Thomas awards. It is understood the committee was impressed by her work with young people.

There was wide dismay in the world of poetry last night at the apparent failure of one of the front-runners, U A Fanthorpe, to make the shortlist.

The shortlisted poets will now be sounded out, with an appointment expected this month.