At the Hay festival to debate my new book, Over to You, Mr Brown, I got a very lively - and in some part hostile - reception from the audience. Mud, mud and more mud is the first impression of the site itself, which has had to withstand several days of continuous downpour. I like to counteract people's usual stereotypes of sociologists, so I wore a suit and tie - just about the only person there to do so, as far as I could see. I took some care where I placed my feet, but still came back pretty mud-stained. I would have done better to have worn jeans and gumboots, like many of the old hands at the event did.
Old hands - the audiences at Hay are mostly on the mature side, or at least they were in my session. In the speech I gave, I was careful about where I put my feet metaphorically speaking. I was talking about Labour's record over the past 10 years and where the party is likely to move under the stewardship of Gordon Brown. I gave what I thought was a balanced view of Labour's successes and failures during the Blair period, but some of the questioners disagreed with me in very forceful terms.
What the audience didn't ask about was as interesting as what they did. I argued that the economy has been one of Labour's main successes, the foundation of a good deal else that has been achieved. There are problems, of course, such as elevated house prices, high levels of personal debt, relatively low productivity growth and so forth, but over the whole 10-year period macro-economic policy has been commendably effective. Seventy-five per cent of the potential labour force is in employment in the UK, compared to 63% and 64% in France and Germany respectively; and this figure has been achieved above the floor of a minimum wage that has been rising in real terms. Youth and long-term unemployment are far below the levels seen in the two large continental countries.
There was a question about manufacturing, but no one seems much interested in the economy any more. The vast bulk of the questions and worries centred upon the public services. The feelings of many in the audience echoed those found in national opinion polls. The massive amounts of money invested in health and education, it was said, have been wasted, while the statistics the government musters to show otherwise have been rigged. Those expressing such views did so with such certitude that I doubt if anything I said in response made much impact. It made no difference to say that reputable and independent statistics show large improvements in almost all areas of health-care and education - albeit with many problems remaining.
How the public perceives Labour's reforms in health and education could settle the outcome of the next election. There is a real conundrum. Why, when such an impressive variety of improvements have been made since 1997, do many people, both working in the public services and among the general public, seem to feel even more disgruntled than they did before? There is a lot of work for Labour to do to reverse current perceptions, and the trumpeting of achievements, no matter how real they might be, plainly won't do the job.
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